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Home » Why the ANC may sacrifice Ramaphosa to save itself before the 2029 election
Opinion

Why the ANC may sacrifice Ramaphosa to save itself before the 2029 election

Mike Mathabela argues that mounting public anger over illegal immigration, worsening economic conditions and electoral pressure could prompt the ANC to recall President Cyril Ramaphosa after its 2027 elective conference in an attempt to rebuild public trust.
Mike MathabelaBy Mike MathabelaJuly 2, 2026No Comments
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Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma has become a prominent figure in South Africa's debate on illegal immigration.
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  • The author argues that the political response to Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma has elevated her profile and amplified her message.
  • Growing public frustration over illegal immigration, unemployment and inequality is presented as a serious electoral threat to the ANC.
  • The opinion contends that President Cyril Ramaphosa could become the political scapegoat as the ANC seeks to recover ahead of the 2029 general election.

It would be laughable if it were not so tragic. Imagine the spectacle: a young, articulate woman galvanising an entire Cabinet and a State President to summon the full force of the state’s machinery, including the nation’s army, while allocating R600,000 from a cash-strapped, heavily indebted Treasury.

Imagine powerful men and women convening numerous press conferences and issuing earth-shattering threats until they froth at the mouth. Imagine, further, African governments scurrying to evacuate thousands of their citizens living illegally in South Africa, while the United Nations publicly expresses concern and condemnation over anti-migrant sentiment, xenophobia and violence against foreign nationals in the country.

The paranoia knows no bounds. All of this because Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma dared to march and speak what many South Africans perceive to be the truth.

The character assassination of Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma

The allegations apparently aimed at impugning her dignity are telling.

  • She has been accused of being a US agent because she participated in US-sponsored programmes such as the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP), giving rise to suggestions that she could be acting on behalf of a foreign government.
  • She has also been accused of being bankrolled by Israel to destabilise South Africa, allegedly in retaliation for the country’s decision to institute proceedings against Israel before the International Court of Justice on allegations of genocide in Gaza. She has vehemently denied the allegation.
  • She has further been portrayed as a political pawn for parties perceived to oppose illegal immigration, including MK, the ATM and ActionSA, allegedly advancing their interests for electoral purposes.

The ANC’s gathering storm

The widespread opposition to illegal immigration expressed by many South Africans is likely to become the ANC’s undoing and may precipitate President Cyril Ramaphosa’s early recall soon after the party’s 2027 elective conference.

Barring an unprecedented image-rehabilitation campaign, the ANC is highly likely to suffer a crushing defeat in the November local government elections. Such an outcome would stem from widespread public perceptions that the party has allowed illegal immigration to undermine employment opportunities for South Africans in lower-skilled occupations and academic institutions, while also affecting meaningful participation in small businesses such as street hawking and spaza shops.

The ANC’s potentially irrecoverable electoral setback in November, fuelled by persistent concerns over illegal immigration, high unemployment, deep inequality and the increasing emigration of White Afrikaners to the United States, is likely to be attributed to Ramaphosa’s leadership.

The scapegoat strategy

In an attempt to recover ahead of the 2029 general election, the ANC may feel compelled to demonstrate a visible change in political direction and respond to the electorate’s demands. In that scenario, Ramaphosa could become the obvious scapegoat, with critics arguing that his administration has been marked by a succession of strategic missteps.

Among the issues likely to be cited are:

  • The decision to institute proceedings against Israel before the International Court of Justice, which critics argue strained relations with a United States administration led by Donald Trump.
  • The lingering reputational damage arising from the Phala Phala scandal.
  • Presiding over record levels of unemployment and inequality in South Africa.

For these reasons, Ramaphosa’s recall soon after the ANC’s 2027 elective conference appears increasingly probable. If that were to happen, his presidency would continue to attract scrutiny long after his departure, and his legacy could suffer lasting reputational damage.

Should Ramaphosa eventually be recalled, few may remember that the persistent marches and outspoken voice of an unemployed housewife from KwaZulu-Natal helped catalyse a chain of events that fundamentally altered South Africa’s political landscape.

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ANC Cyril Ramaphosa Illegal immigration Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma South African politics
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Mike Mathabela

Agile coach and Lean Six Sigma Black Belt consultant. He writes in his personal capacity.

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